The Promise and the Paradox

It all sounds simple enough. We swap fossil fuels for clean energy, the air gets cleaner, the planet cools down, and the world becomes a fairer place. But somewhere between this rosy vision and the real world, there’s a messy truth renewable energy depends on global supply chains that are neither green nor just.

In late 2024, a community mini-grid project in Malawi came to a standstill. Why? The solar inverters, ordered months in advance, were stuck in a port halfway around the world. No power, no progress. This isn’t just a logistical hiccup. It’s the result of a fractured global system where clean energy hardware zigzags across continents before lighting a single bulb.

And yet, the irony is brutal. As the world races to decarbonize, the very tools we need to do it—solar panels, wind turbines, battery storage are trapped in a geopolitical traffic jam.

The Anatomy of a Global Renewable Supply Chain

Take a typical solar panel. The polysilicon might come from China, the silver from Peru, the assembly from Vietnam, the inverter from Germany. Each of these elements moves through dozens of hands, hundreds of checkpoints, and now thanks to tariffs and export restrictions mountains of red tape.

Global supply chains have made renewable technology cheaper over the years. But that cost-saving came at the price of resilience. COVID-19 was a wake-up call. The Ukraine war and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions have made the situation worse. In 2025, the U.S. doubled tariffs on Chinese solar goods, accusing Beijing of market dumping. Europe followed suit. China, in return, clamped down on exports of critical minerals like gallium and graphite. The result? A global clean energy standoff.

So what does this mean for the just energy transition? It means the Global South, already on the margins of energy access, is being priced out of the future.

Why Can’t Africa Manufacture Its Own Components?

It’s a fair question. If global supply chains are so vulnerable, why can’t Africa build its own solar panels and wind turbines?

The answer is both frustrating and revealing. First, manufacturing requires economies of scale. Countries like China didn’t become renewable powerhouses overnight. They spent decades investing in infrastructure, subsidizing companies, and absorbing losses. African nations, burdened by debt and currency volatility, don’t have that luxury.

Second, global trade rules don’t favor new entrants. Export standards, intellectual property barriers, and the sheer dominance of existing players create steep entry barriers. Try setting up a solar factory in Nigeria or Kenya and you’ll hit walls from high import duties on raw materials to unreliable electricity (the ultimate irony).

And let’s not forget finance. Renewable manufacturing is capital intensive. Many African countries struggle to attract private investment due to perceptions of risk. Multilateral funding, while helpful, often arrives wrapped in red tape.

Still, things are shifting. Egypt is scaling up wind blade manufacturing. South Africa has seen early success in localizing solar assembly. But these are the exceptions, not the norm.

The Trade Trap: Protectionism vs Progress

Supporters of tariffs argue that they protect local jobs and promote national security. But in clean energy, the logic doesn’t always hold. When the U.S. slapped tariffs on Southeast Asian solar panels, global prices surged. Projects stalled. Smaller nations, who had no dog in the trade fight, suffered.

Trade protectionism also fractures the global climate response. Instead of sharing solutions, countries hoard technology. The energy transition becomes a zero-sum game.

This isn’t just unfair, it’s dangerous. The IEA says we must triple renewable capacity by 2030 to stay within the 1.5°C warming limit. Every delay, every disruption, every tariff widens the gap.

A Just Transition Needs Just Trade

If the world is serious about climate justice, trade rules need a reboot. Clean energy goods should be treated as global public goods free from excessive tariffs and export bans.

We also need climate-aligned trade agreements that guarantee access to essential technologies for the Global South. Imagine a global clean tech waiver, where countries commit to tariff-free flows of solar, wind, and battery components. It’s not just possible it’s essential.

And we need to build regional supply chains. Africa doesn’t need to manufacture every component, but it can assemble, install, and innovate locally. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a chance to build internal resilience and reduce external dependency.

The Human Cost of Delay

Every stalled project is more than just a spreadsheet entry. It’s a child studying under candlelight. It’s a midwife delivering babies in the dark. It’s a farmer losing crops for lack of cold storage.

In Zambia, a solar-powered clinic waited eight months for a part blocked by customs issues. In the DRC, a mini-grid operator shut down because they couldn’t replace batteries caught in a supply freeze. These aren’t exceptions—they’re symptoms of a broken model.

Conclusion: The Urgency of Now

The energy transition is the greatest infrastructure project in human history. But it cannot succeed if built on a system that leaves half the world behind. Global supply chains can either be the arteries of a green future or the choke points of a failed one. The choice is ours.

If we want the just energy transition to mean something more than a buzzword, we must redesign trade policy, rethink manufacturing, and reimagine cooperation. Because a clean energy future that isn’t fair, isn’t one worth building.

Introduction

The global push for a just energy transition: a shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy in a socially equitable way is increasingly clashing with protectionist trade policies, particularly the rising wave of tariffs on clean energy components. While tariffs are often intended to protect domestic industries and respond to geopolitical tensions, they may inadvertently delay or distort efforts to combat climate change fairly. This article critically explores the impact of recent tariff regimes, particularly those introduced by the United States, and their global ripple effects on the just energy transition.

Understanding the Just Energy Transition

The “just” component of the energy transition emphasizes equity, fairness, and inclusivity. It aims to ensure that the shift to a low-carbon future does not marginalize vulnerable communities or nations. Its key pillars include:

• Ensuring universal access to affordable clean energy
• Protecting workers and ensuring decent green jobs across the value chain
• Supporting developing countries with the financing, infrastructure, and technological transfer required for equitable participation in the global energy shift

However, the growing use of tariffs, particularly in the clean energy sector, presents a significant challenge to this vision. Tariffs, by design, raise the cost of imported goods. When applied to renewable energy components such as solar panels, wind turbines, or battery inputs, they can stall progress and deepen global inequality.

Recent Tariff Trends: A Snapshot

In 2025, the United States expanded its tariffs on imported solar modules, critical minerals like lithium and cobalt, and components vital to battery storage and grid infrastructure. These measures were introduced as part of a dual narrative: enhancing national security and stimulating domestic manufacturing. At face value, these goals appear reasonable. Yet, the broader consequences ripple far beyond U.S. borders.

Europe followed suit, enacting its own set of trade barriers aimed largely at green technology imports from China. The EU has argued that Chinese state-backed subsidies have led to unfair market advantages and overproduction, distorting global competition. In retaliation, China has begun shifting segments of its green tech production to Southeast Asia to avoid direct tariffs.

These global trade maneuvers are fragmenting the clean energy supply chain and creating inefficiencies at a critical time. The resulting fragmented market undermines economies of scale and disrupts the global flow of affordable clean energy technologies—technologies that are crucial for accelerating the energy transition, especially in developing countries.

1. Rising Costs and the Inflationary Feedback Loop

Tariffs inevitably lead to higher prices. In the context of clean energy, these higher prices are pushing solar, wind, and storage technologies further out of reach for many.

• Solar energy: According to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), U.S. tariffs on solar panels from Southeast Asia contributed to a 26% decline in imports, raising costs per installed watt and threatening utility-scale project viability.
• Wind power: Raw materials such as steel, aluminum, and rare earth magnets used in turbine blades and nacelles have seen price hikes due to broader trade conflicts.
• Battery storage: Tariffs on key lithium-ion battery components disrupt pricing predictability and discourage large-scale investment.

These inflationary effects reduce the competitiveness of renewable energy versus fossil fuels in unsubsidized markets. Developing nations that rely heavily on low-cost imports to scale clean energy deployment are particularly affected. The irony is glaring: the tools meant to hasten the end of the fossil fuel era are being made more expensive by the very policies designed to support local transition efforts.

2. Supply Chain Disruptions and Strategic Bottlenecks

A resilient energy transition depends on the timely and efficient flow of components across borders. Yet tariffs inject friction into this flow, resulting in significant disruptions:

• Delayed deployment timelines: Project developers in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia often report procurement delays of 3–6 months due to sourcing challenges.
• Uncertainty for investors: Unpredictable tariff policies create a volatile business environment, disincentivizing long-term investment in clean energy infrastructure.
• Relocation inefficiencies: To bypass tariffs, manufacturers are shifting operations to secondary locations. For instance, some Chinese firms have moved solar production to Laos and Indonesia, which introduces new compliance risks and logistical complexities.

These bottlenecks slow down grid integration, strain local supply chains, and jeopardize national renewable energy targets.

3. Global Energy Inequities Deepen

Tariff impacts are highly uneven across the globe. Wealthier countries like the U.S. and Germany can buffer the inflationary effects through robust tax incentives and domestic subsidies. Meanwhile, developing nations are forced to bear the brunt:

• Increased energy poverty: In sub-Saharan Africa, where over 600 million people lack electricity, low-cost solar panels from China have played a crucial role in rural electrification. Tariffs now threaten to reverse gains.
• Financing barriers: As technology costs rise, the already substantial funding gaps widen. According to the Climate Policy Initiative, less than 10% of global climate finance reaches the Global South.
• Technology lockout: High-income countries are accelerating their transition through domestic manufacturing and R&D, while poorer nations face limited access to new technologies, further entrenching inequality.

In essence, tariffs are turning what should be a collaborative global mission into a geopolitical race where the vulnerable lose out.

4. Domestic Manufacturing vs Global Collaboration

Tariffs are often justified on the grounds that they stimulate local industry, reduce foreign dependence, and create jobs. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act is a high-profile example, promising billions to support domestic green manufacturing.

Yet this approach comes with caveats:

• Long timelines: Building robust local industries is a multi-year process. Immediate clean energy deployment needs cannot wait.
• Market distortion: Protecting local manufacturers may reduce global competition, stifling innovation and increasing prices.
• Global fragmentation: As each country seeks self-sufficiency, collaborative efforts on R&D, standardization, and deployment suffer.

The optimal path lies in hybrid strategies—supporting strategic domestic capabilities while fostering open access to global innovations and markets.

5. Implications for Climate Targets

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the World Bank warn that to stay on track with the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal, global renewable energy capacity must triple by 2030. Tariffs undermine this ambition in several ways:

• Deployment delays: Higher costs and longer timelines reduce the number of clean energy projects that can be brought online.
• Reduced innovation: A fragmented market results in duplication of efforts, fewer shared platforms, and slower progress in critical research areas.
• Breakdown in trust: As the Global South sees industrialized nations prioritize self-interest through tariffs, confidence in multilateral climate negotiations diminishes.

Without urgent reforms to harmonize trade and climate policy, these barriers could permanently derail collective climate action.

Policy Recommendations: A Just Trade Pathway

To reconcile climate justice with trade policy, nations must take coordinated and principled steps:

1. Climate-Aligned Trade Agreements
   Establish global frameworks that exempt clean technologies from protectionist tariffs, with provisions under bodies like the WTO and UNFCCC.
2. Technology Transfer & Climate Finance
   Honor and expand commitments to support the Global South through the Green Climate Fund and bilateral technology partnerships.
3. Strategic Tariff Design
   Limit tariffs to critical security concerns, set clear expiry dates, and provide tariff exemptions or rebates for low-income nations.
4. Strengthen Regional Green Supply Chains
   Encourage regional partnerships such as AfCFTA in Africa and ASEAN in Asia to create shared clean tech production ecosystems.
5. Global Governance Reform
   Empower institutions like the G7, G20, and WTO to act as arbiters in aligning trade policy with climate goals.

Conclusion

In their current application, tariffs represent a serious risk to the just energy transition. They inflate prices, disrupt supply chains, exacerbate inequality, and sow mistrust between global partners. While national industrial strategies are important, they must not come at the expense of international solidarity and climate cooperation.

As the planet faces increasing climate-related shocks, the need to reconcile trade protectionism with climate justice is both urgent and non-negotiable. The world does not have to choose between national interest and the global good. A carefully designed, inclusive, and collaborative trade framework can deliver both.

Only through harmonized, climate-conscious trade policy can we ensure that the clean energy transition is not only fast but also fair.

“An energy transition is ‘just’ if it is affordable, meaning that it is within relatively easy reach of the end-users, and available, meaning that the supply of energy is adequate and reliable to meet the demand of end-users” – Ahunna Eziakonwa, UNDP African Regional Director

Introduction

Just Energy Transition, according to the United Nations, is defined as a transition towards sustainable sources of energy in a manner that no one is ‘left behind or pushed behind’. The concept of Just Energy Transition originated from the defense of workers who are at risk of losing their jobs due to the adoption of renewable energy sources and environmental regulations thereof which later expanded to capture the interests of affected communities and other stakeholders. In the African context, the topic has gained traction due to its crucial priority for its development. Some critics across the continent have raised concerns particularly regarding potential neocolonial tendencies and unequal responsibility burdens.

(Read more: https://www.tni.org/en/article/the-energy-transition-in-north-africa )

Some critical concerns remain – with about 17% of the world’s population, Africa tends to bear the brunt of climate change the most due to low adaptive capacity, high exposure, and high sensitivity. Statistics according to the Global Carbon Budget (2023) shows that Africa contributes just about 4% of Global Carbon Emissions – the lowest across all continents. To put that into context, the average American or Australian emits as much CO2 in a month as an African does in a year.

The Challenge of Balancing Development and Sustainability

Access to energy is defined in a variety of ways, but most definitions involve having consistent and affordable access to cooking facilities as well as electricity that can be ramped up over time. Every nation’s ability to thrive economically depends on its ability to obtain a consistent and high-quality energy source (IEA, 2024). It fosters industrialization, increases productivity and economic growth, promotes human development, and is essential for achieving nearly all of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The World Bank estimates that 733 million people worldwide, i.e., 9.1% of the global population, do not have access to electricity – sub-Saharan Africa alone, constitutes 600 million. A further hundreds of millions merely have patchy or inconsistent access to energy. According to the African Development Bank, over 640 million Africans lack access to energy, resulting in an electricity access rate of little over 40%, the lowest in the world.

Africa’s limited access to modern energy is impeding its capacity to achieve its development objectives and increase its resilience to climate change, according to the African Development Bank.

Is Africa Being Greenwashed?

Greenwashing is a deceptive tactic used by powerful organizations and companies. They try to appear eco-conscious by exaggerating their environmental efforts or spending more on marketing their “green” image than on actual sustainable practices. This is a way to mask their harmful impact on the environment.

Greenwashing isn’t just for companies – countries can do it too. They might tout a policy as “green” while ignoring its hidden environmental costs, like the pollution created by making solar panels for a “clean energy” initiative. Hiding or downplaying these downsides is another form of greenwashing.

To tackle the issue of greenwashing, the European Union, North America, and the 13 ASEAN member states, have developed classification systems for sustainable financial practices. Interestingly, the African continent lags behind in terms of developing policies that address greenwashing or meet Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards.

Dr. Eziakonwa, Regional Director for Africa at UNDP, emphasizes that a successful transition must prioritize affordability and availability. In her words, energy must be ‘within relatively easy reach of the end-users’ and the supply must be ‘adequate and reliable’ to meet their needs.

The African continent seems to be in a dilemma. The major threat that climate change poses to the food, water, and livelihoods of millions of people on the continent must be addressed by policymakers. The necessity of development and economic expansion, on the one hand, and the detrimental impacts that these climate change effects have on peace and security, on the other.

Expert Opinions: Voices for a Just Energy Transition in Africa

The lack of clear standards for sustainable financial practices in Africa makes achieving a just energy transition more difficult. Experts like Dr. Vera Songwe, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), emphasize this point: “A just energy transition in Africa must leave no one behind. It must ensure universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy services for all Africans.”

Initiatives like the Just Energy Transition Africa (JETA) initiative further highlight the need for African ownership. JETA, a non-profit project, supports African communities and organizations in advocating for a clean energy future. This emphasis on African leadership is crucial, as some argue against relying solely on developed nations for financial support.

While developed nations have a historical responsibility for climate change and should contribute financially, a purely top-down approach can be counterproductive. The African Development Bank (AfDB) emphasizes the importance of African ownership: “Just energy transitions demand that energy systems in Africa are designed to be technologically adequate, cost optimal, and economically viable.”

Finding a common ground is key. Developed nations can offer financial assistance and technological expertise, but the solutions need to be designed and implemented by Africans themselves. This ensures the transition aligns with the continent’s specific needs and development goals.

Recommendations from a Young African Engineer

Having participated in numerous conferences and summits on Africa’s energy future, here are my key recommendations as a young African for achieving a Just Energy Transition on the continent:

1. There should be more focus on local manufacture – the development of renewable energy sources like solar and wind should be prioritized, but with a critical twist – invest in local manufacturing capabilities. This would ensure the creation of more jobs, foster technological expertise, and reduce dependence on external suppliers.

2. Ensure equitable access to clean energy by implementing targeted subsidies for low-income households and rural communities. This bridges the affordability gap and ensures everyone benefits from the transition. This might involve innovative financing models like microgrids or pay-as-you-go schemes as already done in some African countries.

3. While reducing emissions is crucial, Africa also needs to adapt to the present impacts of climate change due to its poor adaptive capacity. Invest in climate-smart infrastructure that can withstand extreme weather events like droughts and floods.

4. Young African engineers and innovators are brimming with ideas for clean energy solutions. Support them through training programs, incubators, and access to capital. Their ingenuity will be a driving force in Africa’s energy future.

Conclusion

Africa faces a unique challenge – achieving energy access for millions while transitioning to clean energy sources. This article explored the concept of a Just Energy Transition, one that prioritizes affordability, sustainability, and African ownership.

Initiatives like JETA demonstrate the crucial role African leadership plays in shaping this future. While collaboration with developed nations is important, a top-down approach won’t work.  The African Development Bank emphasizes the need for “technologically adequate” and “economically viable” solutions designed by Africans themselves.

The path forward is clear – prioritize renewable energy with a focus on local manufacturing and job creation. Ensure equitable access for all through targeted subsidies and innovative financing models.  Investment in climate-smart infrastructure to address the immediate impacts of climate change.  Finally, empower young African innovators – their ideas will be the engine of Africa’s clean energy future.

By embracing a Just Energy Transition, Africa can leapfrog outdated models and emerge as a global leader in clean energy solutions. This will not only ensure a sustainable future for its citizens but also set a powerful example for the world. The sun is shining brightly on Africa’s energy potential, and with the right approach, the continent can illuminate the path towards a cleaner, more equitable future.

References

1. African Development Bank, Africa’s Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook – January 2024
2. United Nations Committee for Development Policy Excerpt, 2023
3. UNDP, Tokyo International Conference on African Development, 2023
4. How much does Africa contribute to global carbon emissions? Aljazeera, 2023
5. African Development Bank, Light Up and Power Africa – A New Deal on Energy for Africa, 2023

Author: Rashid Latif Bukari