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Electric Vehicles: What is the future? 

Quick Summary

EV Sales

What’s pushing the EV Marketing

Oil and Electricity demand

EVs in Developing Nations

Article

What are the odds of you driving an Electric vehicle by 2030 or ten years later? Do not worry because
the odds are getting better for you every year. BloombergNEF (BNEF) estimates that in 2025,2030 and
2040, electric vehicles EVs will hit 10%, 28% and 58% of worldwide passenger vehicle sales respectively.
The BMEF report currently puts electric vehicles global sales at 3%.
Do you know what Kodak, Xerox or Blockbuster have in common? Innovation absence. The incumbent
organization must always invest in innovation in order to maintain being at the top. Otherwise, they will
tend to fall. This is what is currently happening in the automotive industry.
After companies like Tesla made electric vehicles a common feature on the roads of developed
countries, other manufacturers have joined the race. Currently, the Tesla Model 3 heads the pack at top
position with over 365,000 units sold in 2020 yet was first launched in July 2017.
EV Sales
Currently there are over 500 electric vehicles model globally. As battery prices fall with an increase in
energy density improvement coupled with mushrooming of more charging stations, sales will continue
to rise for electric vehicles. In India, Electric vehicle sales are up 20% with listed electric vehicle
companies like TATA, Ashok Leyland, Ather Energy and Mahindra focusing on production. Over the
years, India has been a strategic market for most manufactures not just in the automotive industry. This
can be attributed to the population of over a billion providing vast markets.

Tesla has as a result registered a company in the country. According to India’s transport minister, Nitin
Gadkari, the giant electric vehicle company will start off with sales and thereafter may seek assembly
and manufacturing.
What’s pushing the EV market?
If you sat in an Advanced Macroeconomics class, you probably have heard of arguments that technology
is endogenous. Technological advancements occur as a result of intentional investment decisions. These
decisions are made by profit maximizing agents.
This is the case in the EV market. Batteries keep getting better every year. This is not by default but by
serious labor and financial investments. Battery average density keeps on rising at 4%-5% annually
while charging speeds are on the rise. For example, the Tesla supercharger 3 network can add about 75
miles of charge in just 5 minutes of charge for the Model 3.
Apart from technology, policy makers are also lobbying for significant reduction of emissions in the
automotive market. Another major concern for them are city policies, fuel economy regulations and
quota systems. Several countries have put in place mechanisms to encourage adoption of electric
vehicles through policy makers. Subsidies for example have encouraged purchase of battery electric
vehicles.
In 2016, countries like Norway, Korea, China, United States, France, UK and Japan offered national
subsidies of USD 20,000, 16,550, 10,000, 8,750, 7,100, 6,200, and 5,500 for battery electric vehicles per
vehicle respectively. With this effort, about 13 countries have announced their plans to eliminate the
sale of internal combustion vehicles (ICV). This has as a result led to rising policy pressure on
manufacturers. This is enough to educate manufacturers on the future of ICV’S.
Another contributor is the falling lithium-ion battery prices. From 2010 – 2019, lithium-ion battery packs
prices dropped 87%. This has been attributed to discoveries of new manufacturing techniques,
chemistries and introduction of simplified pack designs.
What it means for Energy and Electricity demand
Oil and Electricity Demand

Covid- 19 safety rules hit the passenger vehicles hard and the effects passed on to oil demand. 1 million
barrels of oil per day is already being replaced by EV’s around the world. What still gives hope to the
overall road transport oil demand for this decade is growth in heavy commercial vehicles. We have
however seen the likes of Elon Musk unveiling solutions for this such as the class 8 semi-truck. The truck
will come with 300-mile or 500-mile range. Tesla has also launched an eighteen-wheeler for cargo.
Multibillion-dollar organizations such as Amazon has also opted for electric vehicles for deliveries. This
clearly gives a clear picture of where things are headed. BNEF projects that by 2040, 17.6 million barrels
of oil demand will be displaced by EV’s per day.

By 2040, the overall consumption of electricity by EV’s across all segments will add just 5.2% to global
electricity demand. This EV’s will consume a total of 1,964TWh.
Why Electric Vehicles?
A global advantage of buying an electric vehicle is the absence of carbon emissions. They help reduce
global warming in the long run and as a result an investment to our future generations. EV’s also require
low maintenance compared to gasoline cars. There is no need to send your EV to the service station as
often as you would an ICE.
Savings is one of the most important selling points. EV’s can be charged for significantly very low prices
compared to ICE’s. Some countries also offer incentives for going green. On safety, EV’s have been
deemed safer to use due to their low center of gravity making them more stable. EV’s are even less
likely to burn or experience explosions given the absence of flammable fuel.
EV’s are revolutionizing driving by making it easier. They come without the clutch mechanism since EV’s
do not suffer from the problem of stalling. You basically operate the vehicle using acceleration pedal,
the steering wheel together with the brake pedal. In ICE’s the breaking process wastes kinetic energy
while in EV’s, regenerative breaking charges the battery.
As much as there are some disadvantages of using electric vehicles such as the issue of recharge points,
steep initial investment and driving range the advantages outweigh them. Most of the challenges are
being faced out by technological advancements and time. An example is the problem of driving range.

Improved battery technology has now seen EV’s with up to 412-mile range up from 100-mile range. It is
therefore possible in future to have 1000mile range EV’s given this trend.
EV’s in Developing Nations
The Kenyan government has set a goal of having 5% of all registered vehicles being EV’s by 2025.
Government strategies have been formulated in order to have new public buildings have charging
stations. Kenya has severally experienced fuel challenges for example the increase of public transport
costs by Ksh.15. This was as a result of increased fuel costs as a result of increased VAT.
Private transport companies such as Eco-rent have however invested in EV’s in the Kenya. The company
launched a digital application similar to uber called NopeaRide. The organization uses purely EV’s and
has also set up charging points for their vehicles. Other countries in Africa worth mentioning include
South Africa where out of more than ten million cars, a thousand are EV’s and Nigeria where the
Hyundai-Kona, a locally assembled EV is being set up.
Conclusion
Technology advancements are exponential and endogenous. It is on this basis that the EV markets
future is promising. The overwhelming support and interests from governments and other relevant
institutions have also seen EV’s market grow. Technological advancements will render the initial costs
for EV’s to be cheaper and as a result more affordable.
Moreover, having Solar Power your home together with an EV is significantly economical as witnessed
by a Tesla customer who installed the Solar roof and owns a Model Y. She was able to feed extra power
to the grid making savings of up to $415.50 and revenues of $92.12 from selling back to grid.
This therefore shows us the need to also adopt solar power for running homes from which could also
power the EV’s making it even more economical. It would then be possible to make savings in this harsh
covid-19 economic times.

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